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TroutR
03-26-2007, 08:25 PM
I was wondering if there is a local weather station you would recommend that is more accurate than "weather.com". My family and I are headed up for next week. And for the past 5 years my wife has used weathercom and they missed the mark. She would like to not have to take half of everything she owns. I'm not to worried about me as I will make do. I'm planning on being in waders 4 or 5 hours a day.

Thanks for any and all suggestions.

Gerry Romer
03-26-2007, 09:45 PM
Love your tag line! Isn't Herbert the lead vocalist for HooberStank?? -- Sorry, couldn't resist.

Byron did a comparative study a couple weeks ago and determined that weather.com is closest - in terms of current conditions and relatively short term forecasts - to his own impeccible record of stat-keeping. In fact, he briefly tried another service and went back to weather.com for the accuracy of their forecasts.

What specific time frame are you looking at?

Gerry

sammcdonald
03-26-2007, 10:25 PM
you might look at wbir.com...it's knoxville, but todd howell is a pretty good weather guy

TroutR
03-27-2007, 09:59 PM
Gerry,
Thanks for bring my typing skills to my attention. I have been using it for a while and you are the first person on this board to bring it to my attention. We will be leaving Saturday morning early and then heading to Virginia the following Saturday for my wifes aunt's Birthday party,and then we have a long drive home on Sunday.


Sam,
My wife is familiar with "wbir" she is from east Tennessee.

Thank you both for the insight. If you get a chance next week I will be on the water everyday except for one. That is the day we head to Knoxville to see my Father in-law.

ijsouth
03-27-2007, 10:11 PM
Here's something some of y'all might find interesting, particularly if you're of a techno-geek frame of mind - from the National Weather Service:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 02 - 06 2007

TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED OVERALL 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
YESTERDAYS 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST FLOW PATTERN. THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST
OVER ALASKA REMAINS A DOMINANT FEATURE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXCEEDING 200 METERS OVER THE NORTH SLOPE IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH FORECAST FROM BAFFIN BAY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA
IN THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATE DIGGING OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE 0Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT LOWER LATITUDES WHILE WEAKENING THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
OVER HUDSON BAY. A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WEST IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE CONUS. THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH RELATIVE TO THE GFS MODELS... ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO MAINE... AS COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE RIDGE OVER
ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS... WHERE THE RIDGE IS STRONGEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR TEXAS... AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND OVER
THE NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR WESTERN
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDER ANOMALOUSLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE STRONG
RIDGE. COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
INCLUDING THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE RIDGE. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA... EXCEPT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WHERE WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... AGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS... AND GOOD
CONTINUITY.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS... 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... THE CPC AUTO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST
TEMPERATURE TOOL.

THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10 2007:

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD... THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... HOWEVER THERE IS A TREND
TOWARDS A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEPENING OF THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING IT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE 0Z AND
6Z OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS INDICATE A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH THAN THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS... ALSO EXTENDING IT FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERNS
DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS... AND INCREASINGLY PROBABLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED
TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL... WHILE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE STATE... EXCEPT WESTERN ALASKA WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MORE PROBABLE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5... DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG
THE FORECAST TOOLS... OFFSET BY GOOD CONTINUITY.

THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES...THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST... NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL.

THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL.

FORECASTER: D. COLLINS

6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 06, 2007

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N N OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B


8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10, 2007

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N N OHIO B A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N B

LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Gerry Romer
03-27-2007, 10:33 PM
okay... I looked and looked 'til I thought I was goin' blind. I COULD NOT FIND THE PART ABOUT THE EASTER BUNNY'S ROUTE!

I hate when the government covers things up like that.

Gerry

ttas67
03-27-2007, 10:39 PM
wbir is the way to go. supposedly (which means I heard this somewhere, so maybe it's not so accurate) there's some kind of ongoing joke among meteorologists about working in east tenn. supposedly its one of hardest places in the country to predict the weather.

ttas67
03-27-2007, 10:44 PM
proof:

“It’s hard to predict weather everywhere. But it is hard here. The mountains add an extra factor into the weather that even the best computer models cannot handle well." --Stephen Parker, NOAA Meteorologist in Morristown, TN

David Knapp
03-27-2007, 11:08 PM
Go to the CPC main site for a much easier to understand map of their predictions for the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks found here (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). Best place to get your forecast is straight from the National Weather Service. Weather.com cannot provide the type of details that a local NWS office can. The forecasters at a local office generally are very familiar with all the localized weather patterns that can affect the specific area that they are in charge of. As I understand it (this may have since changed), the forecasters for weather.com generally rely heavily or even totally on model output that won't necessarily take into consideration local variance... The nearest NWSFO is in Morristown and can be found at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/. You can click on any point on the map and if you try it a couple of times, you can get predicted temperature values for different elevations in Blount county and actually anywhere... Also, on the left hand side of the page, you can type in a location (i.e. Townsend) and get a forecast for it specifically.

ijsouth
03-28-2007, 01:09 AM
Yep, that's a good source...I go to it constantly. Actually, you can go to this page:

http://radar.weather.gov/

...and click on any radar site you like - eventually, you can get to the web site of the locale - that is how I found the Morristown office's site.

I like looking at the long-range forecasts, and particularly the discussions, to get a feel for the future - you get to read the "inside story" of the different models they use, etc. It helps me plan trips up to the Smokies - since I live a fair distance away, I don't want to waste a weekend when the weather is bad.

Bottom line...looks like the temps will remain above average, but the chance of rain will be a bit higher, which is good news for the streams.

TroutR
03-28-2007, 09:25 PM
Thank you so much to all who have chimed in on this tread. This will make our trip so much easier.
Especially "Thank you Byron" for looking into a new site for weather. I
I may not post that much on this site, but I do look at it everyday. This is a
a wonderful site!!!!!
By the way I will be at LRO by Monday afternoon. Look forward to meeting some of you. I have been there for the last 3 years straight but never thought about introducing my self. I will make a point of it this time.

Randy