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Gerry Romer
08-20-2007, 01:01 PM
Byron --

Here's a rather prescient article from the Knoxville News Sentinel from this past May 28th. It does a good job of summing up what happened this past Spring and extrapolating that information into the "future" we are now living. There's even a bit in there about the effect of the stream-side trees on water levels... so it's not all anecdotal.:rolleyes:

http://www.scialli.org/newsPDF/drought.pdf

I also found a link to a very graphic representation of what this drought actually looks like. It's a lot more widespread that anyone has reported here on this board.

http://wrc.iewatershed.com/media/070809/

Gerry Romer

David Knapp
08-20-2007, 01:17 PM
Gerry, that article is excellent! You might also be interested in checking out the drought monitor (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html) if you haven't done so from the University of Nebraska.

Another interesting site is the Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) which I check daily.

Byron Begley
08-20-2007, 06:34 PM
David (Plateau Angler)

It's great to have you and Trevor back in our part of the world. Sounds like you had a great summer adventure. I'm jealous. Thanks for taking the time to post on this board.

Byron

kytroutman
08-20-2007, 07:12 PM
PA,

I would also recommend the following:

http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.html

This is the link to the Palmer Drought Index.

ttas67
08-20-2007, 08:22 PM
thank you byron.

well, I actually got to look at the water today for the first time and I don't know what to say. it's worse than I could've imagined. middle prong (tremont) is almost dried up. I looked at a couple of the runs I usually pull fish out of there, and well, they're not there! there are actually runs I fish that are only dry rock now! what water is there doesn't even appear to be flowing in most spots. just looks like puddles. I can't believe it.

my favorite stretch of metcalf bottoms is unfishable. it's just rocks with little channels of water trickling through it. little river is not even tube-able! I saw tubers walking their tubes through the water, portaging around rocks to find the occasional pool they could float around in. I also saw some dude fly fishing in it. I don't have any strong ethical opinions whether or not somebody fishes in these conditions. I just know I don't enjoy fishing in sad little puddles, and that's all I need to keep me away.

snaildarter
08-20-2007, 09:16 PM
G.R., P.A., KY.T.M., thank you for the good information. I have been under-appreciating how bad it is. I feel bad for that. If this is a hundred-year drought, then it is maybe like a hundred year flood, which is always a big deal. I just hadn't realized it was this severe. The maps yall provide really show how bad it is.

Ttas67, your description is incredible. It sounds awful.

I want to make a request. Next time someone is out, would you mind taking some pictures of it and posting it to the web site? It would help if it were a popular spot that most of us would recognize.

Thank you

ijsouth
08-20-2007, 09:18 PM
Here's a bit of good news...from the 6-10 day nationwide prediction discussion from the NWS:

MOST OF TODAYS MODELS DEPICT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE EAST/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM ALL THREE HIGH LATITUDE ANOMALY CENTERS GENERATE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA... SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT... NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

The entire southeast, from Alabama eastward, is predicted to have "normal" temperatures and "above average" precipitation, starting on 26 August. Of course, this is very subject to change, but it is at least encouraging. Now that the tropics are getting active, we might see a gradual breakdown of the ridge of high pressure that has parked itself over the southeast most of the summer.

Byron Begley
08-21-2007, 10:19 AM
Trevor, It's bad. I drove up to the Glory Hole a couple of days ago. It made me sick. And I ran into one of my neighbors up there. He grew up on the Little River in the 30's. He was as bummed out as I was.

IJ, I hope you are right, thanks for the good news.

Snaildarter, I know you are going out of town for a couple of weeks but please get back on this board when you return. Your posts are very important information and I don't want to lose you. I'll try to take some pictures today if I have the intestinal fortitude to do it. I don't know.

Gerry and Kytroutman, thanks for posting the links. I think we are going to get through this soon.

Byron

Gerry Romer
08-22-2007, 06:11 PM
Today's Maryville Daily Times carried a front page story about the local water situation. According to the article, Maryville and Alcoa - both of which get their water from the Little River - are considering mandatory water usage restrictions since, "the water level in the Little River has reached historical lows."

Here's a link to the complete article.

Gerry


http://www.thedailytimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070822/NEWS/70822006

Flying Trout
08-22-2007, 07:54 PM
I work for the city and received an email today from the big guys. It basically stated what the paper did. We don't ever receive emails that pertain to things outside work like that. Basically they said don't wash cars, do full loads of laundry, don't take long showers, etc. The river has become a depressing place to visit at this time.

Gerry Romer
08-22-2007, 08:52 PM
I was told that there was a special note in that memo... something about flushing toilets??

leadwing
08-22-2007, 09:01 PM
Down here in the flatlands where I live, we have been on water restrictions
since the spring,and with no apparent end to the drought, looks like the
restictions will last throught the rest of the year. We are on an alternating
day schedule here. On days that outside water usage is permitted, you can
water from midnight until 10 pm in the morning. Makes it difficult to water
grass or wash cars. Still, it's just an inconvenience, nothing compared to
the fate of all the poor aquatic critters whose home dries up a little more each day.

I hate August anyway, but this year it has been terrible. I was hoping that
September might bring a cool down with some rain to make a fishing trip to
the smokies possible. I worry that too much damage has been done, to
salvage for This year. It certainly looks bleak.

Flying Trout
08-22-2007, 10:02 PM
Yes, I have been given special permission from the city that my son and I do not have to flush everytime.

ijsouth
08-23-2007, 07:04 PM
At the risk of posting more hopeful news, only to have it dashed...here are some tidbits - the first is from the discussion page of NWS Morristown:

....SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PERSISTS TO PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT COUPLET
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY RESULTING AGAIN IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN
THE ENSEMBLE DATA THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO A GENERAL
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PROJECTIONS AT
THIS TIME.

and this from the long-range prediction page - NWS:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 06, 2007:

....THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT THAT THE CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER COOL AIR WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST... WITH
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM THE TOOLS... THE NAEFS TOOL SLIGHTLY FAVORS CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE OTHER TOOLS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
ENOUGH TO PUSH SURFACE FRONTS INTO THE REGION... AND AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER IT WILL.

So...the definite possibility of a firm maybe...but perhaps the pattern is starting to shift. Let's hope so.

ttas67
08-24-2007, 12:22 AM
honestly, I don't think a little rain will even matter at this point. everything's so dry. it hit 102 today in knoxville. even if there were water in the streams, it's just about too hot to even be outside.

the air conditioner in my vehicle is broke ..... 'nuff said.