Largemouth bass will sometimes have pretty severely shredded fins after fanning out a bed for spawning. *I don't know if rainbows experience similar symptons, but Plateau Angler's idea sounds likely. *Especially with January being so mild, the trout might have gotten an early start.
I've been using mostly hare's ear/*****(fill in your choice of dropper nymph here) combos this winter with a yarn indicator. *Might should give my stone fly patterns more time from the sound of it. *Either that or switch to a pinch on indicator *