I was down there the weekend before Thanksgiving, just after I had heard rumors of shad coming through but I did not see anything myself. I too was throwing a size 16 caddis with not too much happening. I saw a good number of fish chasing caddis, so I changed up my game plan a little and had more success. With my hemostat's, I bent the body downward just below the thorax to make it more like an emerger pattern. Wetted the body and then slicked the Elk hair with floatant and that is when I started getting some aggressive hits. I was letting that bug swing under at the end of my drift and many of my takes were happening when the bug was on the upswing or as I stripped it back. Had a legitimate 14-16" take it, was like a missile coming out of the water and after it's 3rd launch, broke my 6x tippet and that was all she wrote. Once the caddis approach started to slow down, noticed a lot of midge activity going on so I put on a size 18 Griffiths Gnat and had a decent amount of takes with that. After all surface activity died down, I used a double dropper which was a bead head flash back caddis and a zebra midge. I have had great success with that combo, seems like on each trip they prefer one over the other, this time it was the flash back caddis. The shad kill is usually not this early, perhaps when I return the weekend after this, maybe it will be heightened and things really start cooking.
Good luck on your next trip.