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  #11  
Old 04-10-2008, 10:24 PM
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ijsouth ijsouth is offline
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Default The Law of Unintended Consequences

The situation with the corn/ethanol has some other side effects that aren't pleasant for anyone who loves the outdoors. First of all, all that extra farmland, that the gov't was paying farmers to keep idle, and in many cases was providing riparian cover and habitat for ducks and other migratory birds is now being put to the plow to meet the demand. Secondly, all that extra fertilizer, etc is now going to be washed downriver, right past New Orleans and into the gulf; because the Mississippi is contained by levees almost all the way to Head of Passes (the start of its delta), all that muddy river water, along with its nutrient load is dumped into the Mississippi Canyon, instead of being filtered through our dying marshes. This creates a dead zone in the gulf every summer, and it will only grow with more corn being planted upstream.

I can only nod my head in agreement with what has been posted above; it's a money grab (by both private corporations trying to capitalize on the hysteria, and government on all levels, seeing an opportunity to increase taxes "to benefit the environment")...but it has also become a cult, a religion. Look at the reaction to those who even question the basic premise - these whackjobs are calling for censorship, and even prosecution a la Holocaust deniers in Europe. Yes, we should cut down on emissions, but not at the cost of checking our sanity and intellect at the door.
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  #12  
Old 04-11-2008, 07:28 AM
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This thread is very refreshing. I am glad I am not the only one who thinks this global warming bs is just a big hoax!
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  #13  
Old 04-11-2008, 08:52 AM
eastprong eastprong is offline
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Let's get something straight here. Global warming itself is real, not a hoax. The earth is getting warmer. I don't think there is any serious debate among the climatologists on this point. (Why not, the earth's climate is constantly in flux, and has been both warmer and colder than it is currently.) The questions now are: (1) is this just natural, manmade, or some combination and (2) what do we have to do about it. The answer to #2 is that we have to invest countermeasures of some sort. If it's mostly natural, then carbon reductions will have a minimal impact, but we still have to adjust to the changes. Rising sea levels alone means major investments in coastal areas just to keep the water out. Climate changes means that agriculture and water supplies are going to be stressed (just ask Atlanta).

Any way you look at it, it's going to cost us and the money has to come from somewhere. So let's dispense with this notion that it's just a hoax perpetuated by governments to raise taxes -- someone's gotta pay. Even the US Military is planning for increased conflicts due to resource shortages brought on by climate change. Let's hope the consequence come slowly so we can adapt more easily.

Now here's the thing I don't get about the opinions voiced above. Most of you say you support reduced emissions, "cleaning up or act", and environmentalism in general. Yet the same control measures that would have to be implemented to control carbon emissions are the same ones that would lead to less traditional pollutants (NOx, VOCs, CO), acid rain, particulates, and heavy metals. Not to mention less dependence on foreign oil. I hope it's just the pace of change that some alarmists have called for, not the direction.

Also, I don't know where some of you are getting your information on this matter. CO2 is substantially higher (more than 25%) in the atmosphere than it was in 1900 and it's been growing exponentially (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggc...chapter1.html). Correlation of this trend with rising global temperatures is problematic, but when you see trends like this, you can understand what's got the climatologists' panties in a wad. No one knows if the C02 concentrations and emissions are related to GW, but it certainly calls for increased scientific investigation. To call it a "money grab" and a "hoax" is less than useful.

The founder of the Weather Channel, by his own admission, hasn't studied climate change but instead has read papers and talked to people, which is great. But to use him as an authoritative source is like using the founder of Kroger to tell us why there's famine in Africa.
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  #14  
Old 04-11-2008, 09:38 AM
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Eastprong, I respect your dissenting opinion.

1) I think most everyone is in agreement that a reduction in CO2 would be a good thing, but the question is: at what cost? Too many of the schemes that have been devised put huge amounts of money into questionable hands, while potentially not reducing CO2 by much at all. But as someone has pointed out already, there were no reliable methods for measuring CO2 before 1957 (or 1959), so to say that there is more in the atmosphere now that in the 1800s, is hogwash. Look at how dirty and polluted our cities were during the start of Industrial Revolution. The sun used to be blocked out by the pollution of factories in mid day. We are still paying for the many sins of the past. Clean up more? Sure, who wouldn't be for that. Reduce our reliance on foreign oil? Absolutely. Will it cool our planet? Doubtful.

2) There has been no direct correllation between the activities we all engage in and Global Warming. None that is conclusive. Everyone skews the statistics for their own opinions. The earth has gone through many large and small fluctuations in temperature over the years. To say the current trend is entirely of our own doing (or even partially of our own doing) has not been supported by conclusive scientific fact.

3) Global Climate Change, if the warming trend continues, will have some profound impact on our planet, no doubt about it. But again, can we really reverse what our planet is doing, if we really haven't created the problem? We need to take appropriate measures to protect what we can, but if we get hysterical and spend money in the wrong areas we will not help ourselves one bit. And as someone also pointed out, there is some scientific evidence that the last few years have actually been colder, not warmer than in the past. And while the drought in the SE has been a great finger pointer for the GW debate, what about the historic drenching of the midwest this year? Chicago has had one of (if not its most) severe winter on record in terms of snow and temperatures. All of these things on their own can be used to support any point of view, but looking at them together does not point to Global Warming...

Here is some interesting points and counterpoints listed in websites in the comments section of the following blog: (down at the bottom)
http://www.scienceblog.com/cms/globa...ges-14210.html

One that is really interesting is that the polar ice caps on mars are melting, as well...what does that tell us?...
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  #15  
Old 04-11-2008, 09:57 AM
18inchbrown 18inchbrown is offline
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The CO2 now is not higher than it was in 1900. That cannot be stated as fact. That is where the carbon neutral demagogues are wrong. As I stated in my earlier post the CO2 alarmists use ice core sampling to get their CO2 data prior to 1957. I would suggest that all CO2 skeptics Google Zbigniew Jaworoski to find the truth about sampling ice cores for CO2 data.
The reality is the oceans are the major sink for CO2. The solubility of CO2 in seawater is the key. The deep ocean layers are colder than the surface layers. The solubility of CO2 is higher in colder waters. The circulation of the oceans will over time take up the CO2.
The oceans are rising is another claim. Are they? Where is the data supporting this along the coastal US? But even if the oceans rise slightly consider this, the oceans are rising from the melting of the ice. Ice is cold, yes. Will not the average temperature of the oceans fall over time because of the melting ice? Will not the surface area of the oceans increase? So you have average colder temperature of the oceans and more surface area at a lower temperature. How does that affect the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2. Well the oceans will take up more CO2. This is the natural balance that has been occurring and will despite what we mortals do. This is how the Good Lord created it! Oops we don't want to go down that path now do we.
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Old 04-11-2008, 10:47 AM
eastprong eastprong is offline
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Point 1: Even if you don't believe the pre-1957 estimates, look at the trend from 1957 to now (Figure 1 from the reference I gave.) That's actually more alarming. And just because the pre-1957 estimates are not based on direct measurements, doesn't mean they're hogwash! (See footnotes in the table at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html) The methods are indirect, but they are based on science (Not that it matters, given the post-1957 trend.) Finally, the cities were indeed dirtier at the start of the Industrial Revolution, but the scale was much, much smaller. (Cities themselves were much smaller, industrialization was confined almost exclusively to Western Europe and small parts of N. America, and areas outside of the actual cities were unaffected, unlike today where it's everywhere.)

And the first thing that popped up on Jaworowski was Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zbigniew_Jaworowski. Interesting fellow; publishes in journals refereed by Lyndon LaRouche.

Point 2: I agree and think I said this. My point was: should we abandon scientific inquiry or pursue it further? The evidence strongly suggests the latter. I hope you're not saying that just because a causal link hasn't been established means it's settled. There's much uncertainty that demands investigation.

Point 3: I don't pretend to know where the money is best spent, in prevention or adaptation, but it will have to be spent. Given the multiple positive environmental aspects of GHG controls -- not to mention reduced dependency on foreign oil -- it would make sense to invest some money in them. How much? I don't know. More than the deniers and less than the alarmists. I should run for Congress with a response like that.

Also, I think you're interpreting recent weather patterns incorrectly. GW doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be hotter and drier. It means that a small change in overall temps lead to big changes in short term weather patterns (more extremes, more variability) and long term climate patterns. This seems to be exactly what's going on, at least here.
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  #17  
Old 04-11-2008, 11:32 AM
18inchbrown 18inchbrown is offline
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I see you try to negate my recommendation by using typical global alarmist tactics. Try and create a smokescreen of B#ll by making some statement that some oddball referenced him. A respected scientist like Dr. Jaworoski is referenced by millions. You are letting your religion get in the way of facts.

" Zbigniew Jaworoski, MD, Ph D, D SC, a multidisciplinary scientist, is a professor at the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland. He has served as the chairman of the Unites Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and has studied glacier ice samples from around the world, analyzing traces of heavy metals and radionuclides."

This quote was taken from Dr. Jaworoski article " Ice Core Data Show No Carbon Dioxide Increase" published in the Spring of 97. Dr. Jaworoski was the main spokesperson for the Bush administration when they presented to Congress why they did not want to go along with the Kyoto agreement.

The statement that we must pursue further the casual link between CO2 and global warming is not what our country is doing. We have accepted as fact this BS and are spending billions in non-productive money to go down the path of the carbon neutral religion of whom Al Gore is Pope. We will elect a carbon neutral disciple no matter which side wins and we will further waste our resources on this nonsense. It behooves everybody to learn for themselves the hoax that is Global warming as being caused by CO2. Do not accept as facts the rhetoric spewed out by these alarmists before it drives more and more factories to China.
I apologize for my passion but I have seen the industrial base of this country dry up for the last 30 years and I see no end in sight. Remember we all can't cut each others hair or be fishing guides to make a living. Someone has to create the wealth that makes a country great and the sad fact is all the wealth is now being created in China.
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Old 04-11-2008, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastprong View Post
It means that a small change in overall temps lead to big changes in short term weather patterns (more extremes, more variability) and long term climate patterns. This seems to be exactly what's going on, at least here.
That's what is always going on. Since the dawn of time. Is the drought in the southeastern U.S. the result of global warming? I don't know, was the Dust Bowl? Or the Little Ice Age from 900 -1800 A.D.? Does global warming have anything to do with the Gobi Desert spreading? Did it kill the dinosaurs? Did global warming dump feet upon feet of snow in New England this winter? Again, I don't know. But I don't think anyone can credibly say "yes" either.

I agree with Eastprong that more study needs to be done, but I disagree that global warming is a foregone conclusion. There is absolutely no consesnsus. And how can there be when the Earth is the same temperature it was eight years ago? So while I consider myself to have a conservationalist perspective (as opposed to an environmentalist), I am not about to stop driving my truck.
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  #19  
Old 04-11-2008, 12:01 PM
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I'm not going to comment on the validity of GW or not. What I find most troubling is the discussion, over the past couple years, has jumped from the scientific arena to the political one. Battle lines on both sides of the issue seem to largely be drawn along party affiliation. Not in every case, but there is a definite political air to the public debate and that debate appears, to the casual observer, to be drawn along political leanings (left vs. right).

What I find the most troubling about this is once it becomes a geopolitical debate, science and seeking of the truth will be thrown out of the window.

I disagree with the folks who say it's a money grab. I think it's much worse than that, it's a power grab. That power grab will ultimately be a money grab because with power comes money and with money comes power, they go hand in hand. But I think the political debate today is largely one of power and position. Which side can convince the largest population in the electorate of their being "right" on the issue will secure political power (both in the US and abroad). The UN debates about carbon credits and allowing "developing" nations (like China!) a more lax allotment. China is a developing nation? Go to Wal*Mart and tell me China is struggling?

It's power and influence that is, in my not so humble opinion, driving the public debate and rational objective science is getting thrown out of the window.

Unfortunately, I don't think we can believe much, if any, that we hear from either side. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle but we may never know for sure.

Sorry about the rambling.

Jeff
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Old 04-11-2008, 12:02 PM
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Ever hear the old phrase, "Foggy old England."

It wasn't fog, it was smoke from stoves. They burned coal and wood to create that fog over London.

Forest fires use to but themselves out.

It was the same all over the planet.

I wonder how much all of this had on global warming back then?
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