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  #21  
Old 04-11-2008, 12:17 PM
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sprestwood sprestwood is offline
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Default As the saying goes

As the saying goes, "Think globally, act locally."

Even if the media conjures up sensational stories about the earth will be an oven to hold a large audience that doesn’t mean that the potential of environmental damage is not always present. As long as people are still making industrial decisions, those decisions will affect ecosystems. There are lots on greenhouse gasses. Many are naturally produced. The ones that are artificially produced should not get all the attention.

Despite the tendency for a gas to float up and be everyone’s problem, others stick around where they began. The habitat of the trout is very local. Trout can’t just move because the water warms up as it is finding its way back to the ocean. Headwaters don’t connect like the highway system, so when a trout habitat is threatened the trout are not able to find a suitable home.

We screwed up “wild” a long time ago. But GSNP is still a wonderful effort. When the damage was done to the Appalachia area trout by logging and dams, everyone was ignorant about the consequences. The original brook char are gone, and there are way too many people that are surprised when told that there was no bows, browns, or cutthroat it this area originally. Now “wild” needs an asterisk footnote saying “Well, this may not be completely wild, but it is that kind of wild that will take our abuse and make a lot of people think nothing was done wrong.”

The real threat going forward is that people continue arguing. If there are no agreements, there are no actions. What happened in the past is now worthless because you change history. It doesn’t even matter what past data is valid because you still can make a bad decision and a good decision. Odds are that good and bad decisions will continue to be made. If you’re stuck on cost-benefit analysis, the short term will say that destroying habitat is the most profitable, but the long term will disagree.
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  #22  
Old 04-11-2008, 12:36 PM
eastprong eastprong is offline
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18inchbrown:

I do apologize. But one scientist, doesn't hold the truth, when uncertainty rules. On the other side are lots of other distinguished scientists with different interpretations. (It's interesting that the Bush Administration had to dig this guy up to support their policy. Couldn't find an American scientist?) As I said, it doesn't really matter -- look at the post-1957 trends!

And I have also said there is great uncertainty in linking carbon conc. to GW. I'm not convinced there is a link, but there is circumstantial evidence. To hold up this one guy and say there absolutely is no link is just preposterous. The major scientific reports in this area speak in terms of probabilities, not certainties. To a scientist, it's the uncertainty itself that's cause for alarm.

And it doesn't matter if the CO2 is causing GW or not. Because GW is here. It's happened. The uncertainty is if it will continue and if so, by how much, regardless of the cause.

You're on the right track with your description of colder water in the oceans due to polar ice melting (if it accelerates, that is. There's that uncertainty again.). But you're still too hung up on the actual warming being the problem. It's the climatic changes brought about the warming that's the problem. In your example, additional cold and fresh water in the North Atlantic would lower the temperature of the Gulf Stream heading into Europe. Then London and Paris would experience their "true" climates, that of Quebec. So global warming would actually lead to some climates being colder, not without consequences.

Brian:
You're right -- climate is constantly changing. But it changes in response to something. Global average temperatures is one of those things. I remember reading an ORNL report back in the mid-1990s that said the short term effect of higher average global temperatures was more extreme and variable weather in the US, based on their models. Maybe they just lucky.
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  #23  
Old 04-11-2008, 12:48 PM
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I don't know if our emissions are causing global warming, but I do know this: It's not wise to wait until it's too late to do something about it. I would hate to find out that we reacted too late and that we are doomed to the fate of the dinosaurs. Why wait? If there is a credible pattern since 1957, act on it and reduce emissions. It can be done. We are one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world. If we simply invested in other types of energy, the argument would be over. I realize it's expensive, but better safe than sorry. Also, if it would reduce our dependncy on OPEC, I'm all for it, even if it does cost us in the short term. JMO.
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  #24  
Old 04-11-2008, 01:24 PM
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Default Don't get me started

I am a university trained biologist who has worked in the environmental area for over 25 years and my personal opinion based on my experiences in the field is that GW may be the biggest scam ever perpetrated on the human race. There was warming between 1100-1400, during the 30's as well as during the mid 90's. It is called climate and it is variable and changes constantly. Remember the coming "Ice Age" of the 70's? The area I fish in Michigan was under a mile of ice as recently as 15,000 years ago and it all melted without the help of one SUV. This all about power, money and loss of freedom people. Al Gore has pocketed something in the area of $100,000,000 off of GW, and every solution involves big intrusive government intervention into your life.

I agree with the earlier statement that habitat destruction is a much bigger problem, but it is not as glamorous. I stopped supporting TU after getting their GW screed a couple of years ago. DU is not far behind I am afraid. These organizations too often join forces with radical environmentalist because they think they have similar agendas, only to find out too late that after they have provided the money, manpower and prestige to advance the radical agenda they are thrown under the bus as the eco-freaks go after the hunters and fishermen.

I will get off my soapbox now by saying I hope most fly fisherman are smart enough to see through this crap and continue to put their efforts into protecting our fisheries and our hobby from those that would take both away under the guise of saving the planet from the evils of mankind. RANT OFF.
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  #25  
Old 04-11-2008, 01:54 PM
18inchbrown 18inchbrown is offline
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Once again to claim that because CO2 is going up and the alarmists claim there is a link between higher CO2 and the earth warming is a reason to spend billions of dollars perhaps trillions on stopping CO2 emissions is insanity.

How do the CO2 alarmists know that the CO2 has gone up since 1957? What if the CO2 levels during the 50's actually hit a low point and are simply returning to a higher equilibrium value. We won't ever know this because as I have said the pre-1957 data that goes against the CO2 =warmer earth theory is simply discarded.

I put forth Dr. Jaworowski because those open minded people who do Google him and do further investigation will be led to other scientists and scientific evidence that presents the other side of the global warming theory. The problem is that most people believe what they hear when it comes to scientific evidence because it is said by scientists. Well this CO2 = global warming theory is no longer put forth solely by scientists but by Left leaning politicians who want to say what sounds good or feels good with the intention of advancing their political agenda.

Let me ask you CO2 = warming, people, where will we get the energy to drive the factories that we now have left if we don't burn coal or natural gas? We can get it from nuclear right. No because we get only 15% or less of our power from nuclear. France gets what 75%. You can check these facts and get more accurate data. So how do we cut our CO2 emissions in the next 30 years? We have to reduce our power generation or impose carbon sequestration requirements on all industrial energy producers and users. What will that do to our economy? You are right just have the product or good you are producing made in China. We are driving our industrial base out of this country and the consequences are dire. All we will have left to generate wealth is our land and our assets which we will have to sell to the Chinese to get cash.

I am not some wild crazy old man who spouts this off to argue, I am a concerned Scientist and an Engineer who has 30 years of experience in my profession with a graduate degree in Chemical Engineering. I am also a registered professional engineer so I am not a closed minded stupid red-neck. I have no monetary interest in whether CO2= Global Warming is the belief of the land or not, for I have made my money to live comfortably the rest of my life, I just hate to see my country choose such an ill informed path to financial bankruptcy.
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  #26  
Old 04-11-2008, 01:55 PM
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Well, I suppose it's all getting political and though some hate to mix fishing with politics or religion that matter ( personally I think fishing and religion go hand in hand, but thats just me...) barring all the stats, widgets, and percentages, and surveys and who says what and why and what for...the truth is that we do know how it will all come to pass - its already been laid out...the big picture anyhow, so I think we should be good stewards of the resources as best we can and with what we've got, but Lord knows, its not whats the most important thing...enjoy what we have and share that wealth for the time we have and most of all - keep it in perspective.
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  #27  
Old 04-11-2008, 02:03 PM
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Whether any of us believe in global warming or not, we cannot deny the disasterous effects of coal mining/burning in our region and especially to our park and streams. Part (note I said part!) of the reason our streams are so acidic is from coal emissions from TVA and the midwest. A HUGE part of the reason our kids have the highest asthma rates in the country is from burning coal. The devastation from "mountaintop removal" coal mining in undeniable in WV and KY and is now heading our way since our lawmakers were just bought off by National Coal. Look at the barren moonscapes and headwaters buried under 50 feet of coal across the border on I-75. That's what the landscape we know and love around here is going to look like soon.

Why are we arguing about global warming? I think we can all agree that the coal industry has been VERY destructive to our area. Our decision to to conserve or not conserve may or may not have ANY effect on global warming, but you can be darn sure it will have an effect on our parks and streams.
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  #28  
Old 04-11-2008, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 18inchbrown View Post
I just hate to see my country choose such an ill informed path to financial bankruptcy.
BINGO! That's exactly what needs to be considered before we just start "doing something"...that sort of reaction is based totally on emotion (and man's ego that we have that much power). Think about this - how can we improve the environment if we impoverish ourselves by tanking our economy? We won't have the ability to fund research, etc...Yes, we should try to reduce emissions (and we have), for a whole host of reasons unrelated to the theory of global warming - but, we have to look at the big picture and think through things carefully. Again, it is the law of unintended consequences - if we act due to panic and fear, we will probably get an unintended result we won't be happy with.

I started out as a meteorology major, before I switched to computers. From what I saw concerning the study of the atmosphere, it is incredibly complex, with multiple variables that change constantly. We've gotten pretty good with the 3-day forecast, but much beyond that becomes very uncertain. These models that are constantly touted (by both sides in the argument) are only as good as the logic in the code and the data that is fed to them. You can go to the NWS site in your area - look at the "Discussions" section, where the meteorologists summarize what is happening in the atmosphere that led them to make their forecasts; they use multiple models, and quite often, they are in sharp disagreement with each other. Things get even more problematic when you start going weeks and months out in advance.

A lot of the people banging the drum the loudest for GW are not specialists in Climatology or Meteorology, or they aren't even scientists at all. I look at people like Dr Gray at Colorodo State, who can calmly discuss their positions without resorting to hysterics or loaded language.
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  #29  
Old 04-11-2008, 03:22 PM
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Brian Griffing Brian Griffing is offline
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Default Roger that, Blue Raider Fan

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueRaiderFan View Post
Also, if it would reduce our dependncy on OPEC, I'm all for it, even if it does cost us in the short term.
Sounds like you just ponied up to take my share of the bill.

Seriously though, there are people a lot smarter and more educated than me piping up on this debate. Scientists, engineers, and the like. And I'm certainly no business man or economist, and I can speak much more intelligently about the integration of rotary-wing close-air support and mortar fire, but I'll pose this question anyway: Why spend tax payer money on this?
I am sure someone will tell me why I'm wrong, but won't free, open markets eventually take care our dependence on foreign oil. Gas prices will continue to rise because people will pay continue to pay them. And eventually, somebody will put a product into play, at a reasonable price, that will reduce the demand for gas, and prices will drop. After all, I imagine horses cost a lot more before the advent of the internal combustion engine (adjusted for today's dollars ofi course).
In the mean time, most of our electric power is generated by burning coal. So if there is to be some sort of government regulation, shouldn't it be beneficial incentives to companies that provide eco-friendly products, like power companies who properly filter their exhaust with emerging technologies, instead of cutting deeper into my paycheck to fund programs that may or may not be viable.
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  #30  
Old 04-11-2008, 03:28 PM
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I do think we can react without breaking the bank. For one thing, OPEC is taking care of the fossil fuel issue for many. So, something will be done if for no other reason than fuel economy. That's allowing the free market to work, so I think it will be good for the economy if it's not mandated and allowed to come to fruition due to economic reasons/fuel costs. I know if they come out with an economic (as in cheap) electric car, I am going to buy one for in town and save my 4Runner for fishing trips! Good to read every one's points. I know there is a lot of knowledge to be gained from you guys.
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