August 16, 2009
Welcome to the Fishing Report. It is sunny and warm this morning. Townsend appears to be fairly busy for a Sunday in August. According to the Park Service, Little River Road is still closed between Metcalf Bottoms and the turn to Elkmont. This closing is caused by a rock slide that occurred on Friday.
Little River is in good shape. The flow is good. However, it has rarely been below normal flow this year, today it actually is. That is because over the 44 years flow has been recorded here, this date is higher than prior days. So, even though the flow is 139 cubic feet per second, median is 141 cfs. The lowest recorded on this date was in 2007 at 26 cfs. That was a bad summer for us. This has been a good one.
Entering the Park from Townsend or Lyons Spring road won’t get you to Elkmont. You will have to go to Gatlinburg and come in that way due to the closed road. From our entrance you are pretty much confined to the Middle Prong or West Prong of Little River and Abrams Creek. That road was closed yesterday but we were still busy at the shop.
The last I heard was, the road is expected to re-open tomorrow. We’ll see.
Fishing is good especially in the higher elevations where the water is cooler. Fishing is also better early in the morning and late in the evening. Terrestrial dries and wets are a good choice right now. Trout are used to eating beetles, yellow jackets and inch worms. Yellow dry flies such as a Yellow Palmer, Yellow Stimulator, Yellow Parachute Adams, Yellow Neversink Caddis or Yellow Elk Hair Caddis are also good choices. Drop a Green Weenie, Bead Head Pheasant Tail or sinking ant off the dry fly. A small black Chernobyl Ant might also work good in the shady areas for brown trout.
The economy is improving. Our business is improving too, in fact we are up for the first two weeks of August compared to last year. And, last year at this time we were going gangbusters at a 10% increase over 2007. A month or so after Lehman Brothers filed our business dropped like a rock. So we are expecting to see large increases this Fall because last year was so bad. I think we will end the year up from last year.
The good news now is still bad news but it is better news. The job loss in July was 247,000 which is much better than expected and the best showing in almost a year. According to the Wall Street Journal manufacturing production in July was up for the first time in nine months.
Non-farm productivity (GDP), in the second quarter rose at a 5.5% annual rate the largest increase in a quarter since 2003. Large banks have made it through the tough times and many are returning their TARP preferred stock obligations. Many large banks and even AIG are profitable again. AIG reported a $1.8 billion profit in the second quarter which is the first profit report on a positive note since 2007.
Investors are feeling better. In the second quarter the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22%. Since the Dow’s low in March by the end of the second quarter it was up 41%. Now our 201Ks are looking more like 401Ks. It’s fun to open our investment statements again.
If the Gross Domestic Product stays positive we are by most definitions out of the recession in the United States.
There is more to recovery than just what I mentioned above. Getting back to full employment of 4% would be the final and probably last bit of good news.
We should be thankful. It could have been worse.
Have a great day and thank you for being here with us.
August 16, 2009
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