Townsend, Tennessee
November 27, 2009

Welcome to the Fishing Report.  This is my first effort at changing the time of day that I write the Fishing Report.  This is part of our Company’s re-invention plan.  This idea represents a change in my work schedule.  My goal is to write and post this report in the evenings instead of the mornings.  That frees me up to be downstairs talking to customers in the morning and not upstairs typing and changing images then loading the report up to our remote server for your viewing. The process takes about 1.5 hours per day, or about 550 hours per year.  What you are seeing is the report for November 27th but it was written and loaded late on November 26th, Thanksgiving day.

The temperature is dropping. There may be snow in the mountains this morning.  Fishing will slow down as the water temperature drops.  From now until Spring your best fishing will be later in the day after the water warms.  Most trout will be caught on nymphs.  A trout’s metabolism slows when the water is cold.  They don’t need to eat much.  And when they do eat they don’t want to work for it.  So, usually during the winter, most trout are caught on nymphs fished deep and right in front of their noses.  They will be hugging the bottom and not moving much.  Sometimes trout will be rising to blue wing olives or black caddis.  Winter fishing can be a lot of fun, especially on the warmer days.  The leaves have dropped and you will see a lot of things you won’t see in the summer.  It is a nice time of year to be in the Smokies. 

Be here Saturday at 10:00 to meet and watch Drew Delashmit tie flies.  Drew is a saltwater fly fishing guide in Key West.  If you are at all interested in saltwater fly fishing this will be a great opportunity for you.  He will be tying from 10:00 am til 2:00 pm.  It’s Free.  Just show up.   

Wednesday was a very interesting and fun day.  I got plenty of e-mails, phone calls and personal visits from customers.  I answered all the e-mail, met with anyone who found me and returned phone calls or took them depending on what was going on at the time.  One caller from Bowling Green, Kentucky didn’t leave a phone number and I could not find it anywhere.  But other than that, I talked or wrote to every customer.

I got one very interesting phone call from a customer in Versailles, Kentucky.  He said he was watching the RFD network and saw a show featuring Anthony Imparato, the President of Henry Repeating Arms.  Our customer told me that this show reminded him of our company and the way we interact with customers and give you the service you deserve.  He told me I needed to see this show.  As he described it I really got interested. 

I found the RFD Network website but there was no way to see the show or I didn’t find it.  Then I checked the Henry Repeating Arms website and there it was.  The link for this show is below.  It is a history lesson, a business model story and this show tells us how a product is made in the United States that is cherished by the gun’s proud owners.  This is a one hour show.  You might want to save it as a Bookmark and watch it later.  I found it to be fascinating.

Mr. Imperato is a nice guy with an overwhelming desire to please his customers.  In this interview he states, “We’re going to do whatever it takes to make the customer happy”.  You will love this.

A year ago this week our business tanked.  Actually, that trend started in early November. At that time we were afraid our whole banking and insurance system would fail.  The news media was talking about a great depression.  People stopped spending money.  December was slow too.  The gross domestic product fell, home sales plummeted and unemployment numbers rose as companies cut back their payrolls.  This happened all over the world.  This year has been tough for everyone.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to 6400 in March from a high of 14,000.  The markets are a primary indicator of investor confidence.  That was low early this year.

This summer the GDP increased from the same period last year.  Our economy is growing again.  The markets responded, today the Dow is at 10464.  New home sales were up in October.  New unemployment claims are dropping.  Inflation is very low.  Those are good signs.  The down signs that indicate slow growth in our sluggish economy are the low number of new home starts, high unemployment and the weak dollar.  The Fed is keeping interest rates very low and that is keeping the dollar exchange rate against other currencies low.  New home sales may be lower in November.  With unemployment at 10.2%, that means about 6% of our citizens who want to work can’t find jobs.  Economists are predicting those numbers won’t show a big improvement until late next year.  Hopefully they are wrong.  Hopefully it will be sooner.  Consumer spending would jump-start the economy.

A big question right now is, how will retailers do during the Holiday season.  One thing I noticed is, for the 4th week of November we did as much business during the first three days as we did the whole week last year.  That means our business this week will be up somewhere between 50% to 100% over last year.  Is that a fluke or is it a trend?  I don’t know.  My gut tells me that people have started spending again.  I read the Wall Street Journal every day.  I subscribe to the website version.  You can do the same thing for $103 per year and you should.  Every day for the next four weeks I’ll be reading predictions from the major retailers.  We’ll get a sense for this soon.

Have a great day and thank you for being here with us.

Byron Begley
November 27, 2009


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